Dr James Derbyshire is a Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Enterprise and Economic Development Research (CEEDR), Middlesex University. His main areas of research are strategy and mitigating uncertainty, business performance, innovation, SMEs and entrepreneurship. He has previously worked for the European Commission, Cambridge Econometrics, RAND Corporation and Capgemini. He has carried out scenario planning and foresight exercises for the UK government and European Commission.
Scenario planning is a technique for thinking about the future and mitigating uncertainty widely employed by business and government, including the UK government and European Commission. It purportedly widens the perspective of decision-makers, allowing them to reconsider the assumption of 'business as usual', and assisting them to avoid 'surprise' futures.
However, to what extent is it effective? What are the alternative means for thinking about the future and mitigating uncertainty? Under what circumstances is forecasting a useful means for thinking about the future and under what circumstances is forecasting not only misleading, but dangerous? In this seminar Dr James Derbyshire discusses the nature of uncertainty, the appropriateness of model-based methods for thinking about the future under different circumstances, and alternative, qualitative means for thinking about the future.The seminar will outline a number of different approaches for conducting a workshop designed to allow participants to think about the future and mitigate uncertainty.
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