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Distinguished Lecture Series: Tim Butcher

Event information

START DATE 20 November 2014
START TIME 05:00pm

Executive Boardroom, College Building

END DATE 20 November 2014
END TIME 08:00pm

The dog that hasn't barked? The impact of the national minimum wage on the UK economy

The National Minimum Wage (NMW) was introduced in April 1999 amid much concern about its impact on jobs and inflation. In this talk, Chief Economist at the Low Pay Commission Tim Butcher will examine the impact the NMW has had on employment and businesses - looking at the evolution of the NMW and whether these fears were justified. 

Tim will explain the role of evidence in determining the recommendations made by the Low Pay Commission (LPC) on the level of the NMW to the government. The LPC bases those recommendations on a judgement, not a formula, informed by in-house analysis, commissioned research, independent research and evidence provided by external bodies, covering the impact on earnings, employment and businesses. That analysis concludes that, to date, the low paid have seen substantial increases in pay without significant adverse effects on employment. Tim's talk will also cover how the LPC coped with the recession and a change of government, and ends with some thoughts about its future path.

Having been an academic before joining the civil service, Tim combines the rigour of academia with real-world knowledge to give a unique perspective on a topic that affects a huge number of workers and businesses.

The first in a series of distinguished lectures, 'The dog that hasn't barked' explores concerns around employment and real-world impact. These themes are central to Middlesex University's Business School and play a large role in its research output and expertise.

Director of the Distinguished Lecture Series: Professor T C Melewar

All enquiries about the lectures should be directed to Kim Rayment (

Tim Butcher - Biography

Tim ButcherTim Butcher is Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary at the Low Pay Commission (LPC), an independent public body that makes recommendations about the National Minimum Wage to the UK Government. He advises on economic and statistical issues. Tim began his civil service career in 2001 at the Department for Trade and Industry working on employment relations issues. He then moved to Regional Policy before eventually joining the LPC. He became an IZA Policy Fellow in 2009.

Prior to working for the Civil Service, Tim was an academic at Queen Mary and Westfield, University of London; Royal Holloway, University of London; and the University of Essex, working on a range of labour economics issues. Throughout his career, he has published a number of academic and policy papers on these topics, and has been a major contributor to the annual LPC report since 2004. He studied economics at Queen Mary and Westfield, University of London.

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